澳门新莆京23819com《经济学人20170805封面文章》- 如何避免与朝鲜之核战争

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这期的书面标题是How to avoid nuclear war with North Korea
There are no good options to curb Kim Jong Un. But blundering into war
would be the worst
怎样避免和朝鲜进行核战争
从没呀好的方式能范围金三胖,但假如没有办好开战了,那会是极充分之动静

IT IS odd that North Korea causes so much trouble. It is not exactly a
superpower. Its economy is only a fiftieth as big as that of its
democratic capitalist cousin, South Korea. Americans spend twice its
total GDP on their pets. Yet Kim Jong Un’s backward little dictatorship
has grabbed the attention of the whole world, and even of America’s
president, with its nuclear brinkmanship. On July 28th it tested an
intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit Los Angeles. Before
long, it will be able to mount nuclear warheads on such missiles, as it
already can on missiles aimed at South Korea and Japan. In charge of
this terrifying arsenal is a man who was brought up as a demigod and
cares nothing for human life—witness the innocents beaten to death with
hammers in his gigantic gulag. Last week his foreign ministry vowed that
if the regime’s “supreme dignity” is threatened, it will “pre-emptively
annihilate” the countries that threaten it, with all means “including
the nuclear ones”. Only a fool could fail to be alarmed.
北朝鲜能搞来如此多事真的十分神奇。它不是啊超级大国。他的经济体量只发他那来民主资本主义的兄弟-韩国的五十分之一。美国人口一如既往年费在宠物达的钱是它GDP的简单倍增。但是三胖这种开历史倒车的有点独裁却招了全球的体贴,包括美国管,就因他的核边缘政策。7月28日她测试发射了洲际弹道导弹,射程可以由及洛杉矶。不久自此,
他以会晤生出能力把核弹头挂在这种导弹及,对于日本暨韩国他就发出这种打击能力了.
控制是恐怖军工厂的是一个从小便让看作英雄崇拜着长大的丁,他对人口命漠不关注,可以当他那高大的集中营里冷眼目睹无辜的人数被铁锤活活敲死。就于上周他的外交部门放起狠话,说只要政权的“最高尊严”受到胁迫,他们以见面对威胁国家优先发制人,实施打击,并保留下核武器在内一切手段的权。只有傻瓜才会不畏惧

What another Korean war might look like
Yet the most serious danger is not that one side will suddenly try to
devastate the other. It is that both sides will miscalculate, and that a
spiral of escalation will lead to a catastrophe that no one wants. Our
briefing this week lays out, step by step, one way that America and
North Korea might blunder into a nuclear war. It also lists some of the
likely consequences. These include: for North Korea, the destruction of
its regime and the death of hundreds of thousands of people. For South
Korea, the destruction of Seoul, a city of 10m within easy range of
1,000 of the North’s conventional artillery pieces. For America, the
possibility of a nuclear attack on one of its garrisons in East Asia, or
even on an American city. And don’t forget the danger of an armed
confrontation between America and China, the North’s neighbour and
grudging ally. It seems distasteful to mention the economic effects of
another Korean war, but they would of course be awful, too.
使又平等庙会朝鲜乱爆发,会是哪些
极端凶险的匪是平正突然想把其他一样在一直干趴下,而是两者误判彼此,冲突螺旋般升级最终致使同摆没有人想如果的灾祸。我们这周的报道已经逐步指出,美国同朝鲜或者会见作下充分错导致核战争的来。简报也排有了片可能的名堂:对于朝鲜吧,政权垮台,成千上万的群众死亡。对于韩国以来,首尔,这所有一千万人,并在朝鲜1000派系常规火炮射程范围以内的都为摧毁。对于美国以来,一个东亚地区的基地,甚至美国乡土的如出一辙栋城市可能会见受到核攻击。同时转忘了美国同华武装对峙之生死存亡,毕竟中国毕竟朝鲜之左邻右舍跟一半只盟友。我们无甘于讨论任何一样集朝鲜战事会对事半功倍造成的震慑,但毫无说,也亮堂老吓人

President Donald Trump has vowed to stop North Korea from perfecting a
nuclear warhead that could threaten the American mainland, tweeting that
“it won’t happen!” Some pundits suggest shooting down future test
missiles on the launchpad or, improbably, in the air. Others suggest
using force to overthrow the regime or pre-emptive strikes to destroy Mr
Kim’s nuclear arsenal before he has a chance to use it.
川普总理已显著表示,
要阻止朝鲜到能够威胁美国的审批打击能力,并以Twitter上说“绝不会吃她产生”。一些专家建议,将来拿发射台上,或者说有或吧,把已飞上龙的测试导弹给打下来。还有人提议下军事颠覆政权,或是先发制人,在三胖能够采取前将他的核武器库摧毁

Yet it is just this sort of military action that risks a ruinous
escalation. Mr Kim’s bombs and missile-launchers are scattered and well
hidden. America’s armed forces, for all their might, cannot reliably
neutralise the North Korean nuclear threat before Mr Kim has a chance to
retaliate. The task would be difficult even if the Pentagon had good
intelligence about North Korea; it does not. The only justification for
a pre-emptive strike would be to prevent an imminent nuclear attack on
America or one of its allies.
幸好这种军事行动会带事态破坏性升级的危险。三肥的炸弹和导弹发射器被分散配置,而且隐藏的不可开交好。美国底部队没有章程适用保证,能够在三肥有机遇打击报复之前排朝鲜之核威慑。这项任务便以五角大楼拥有大好的朝鲜消息时也杀艰难,更不要说还无。这种事先发打击的唯一理由就是拦住美国或者其盟国遭受核打击

Can Mr Kim be cajoled or bribed into giving up his nuclear ambitions? It
is worth trying, but has little chance of success. In 1994 President
Bill Clinton secured a deal whereby Kim Jong Il (the current despot’s
father) agreed to stop producing the raw material for nuclear bombs in
return for a huge injection of aid. Kim took the money and technical
help, but immediately started cheating. Another deal in 2005 failed, for
the same reason. The younger Kim, like his father, sees nuclear weapons
as the only way to guarantee the survival of his regime. It is hard to
imagine circumstances in which he would voluntarily give up what he
calls his “treasured sword of justice”.
老三胖能吃劝诱或者收买,主动放弃他的核子野心么?值得一试跳,但是想渺茫。1994年的时光克林顿和金二胖(三胖的父亲)签了个商量,朝鲜停生产核武器原料,来换取大量之帮忙。二胖胖拿了成本与技术援助,却回翻脸不认人。2005年任何一个商呢失败了,也是相同的原因。年轻的老三胖胖,跟他老爹一样,都把核武器看成是保安政权的绝无仅有手段。很为难想象一栽或,会为他自觉放弃这把他所谓“宝贵的公平的剑”

If military action is reckless and diplomacy insufficient, the only
remaining option is to deter and contain Mr Kim. Mr Trump should make
clear—in a scripted speech, not a tweet or via his secretary of
state—that America is not about to start a war, nuclear or conventional.
However, he should reaffirm that a nuclear attack by North Korea on
America or one of its allies will immediately be matched. Mr Kim cares
about his own skin. He enjoys the life of a dissolute deity, living in a
palace and with the power to kill or bed any of his subjects. If he were
to unleash a nuclear weapon, he would lose his luxuries and his life. So
would his cronies. That means they can be deterred.
设军事行动过于鲁莽而外交又过分疲劳,唯一剩下的选择单独发威慑与竭制三胖。川普总统应该因为公开发言的形式,不是发Twitter或者让外交部代言昭告天下:美国无会见积极性发起战争,无论是常规战还是核战。但如美国抑或其盟友遭受到朝鲜的查处打击,将会应声还坐颜色。三胖胖大是关爱好,他好享受和谐那既放荡,又跟神一般的活着。深居宫殿里,想特别谁就是格外谁,想睡觉哪个就困哪个。如果他放了核弹出去,他那漫长小命和奢侈浪费的存就是全没有了,而且会涉及到外的相信,所以从这角度来说,他们是得被威慑的。

To contain Mr Kim, America and its allies should apply pressure that
cannot be misconstrued as a declaration of war. They should ramp up
economic sanctions not only against the North Korean regime but also
against the Chinese companies that trade with it or handle its money.
America should formally extend its nuclear guarantee to South Korea and
Japan, and boost the missile defences that protect both countries. This
would help ensure that they do not build nuclear weapons of their own.
America should convince the South Koreans, who will suffer greatly if
war breaks out, that it will not act without consulting them. China is
fed up with the Kim regime, but fears that if it were to collapse, a
reunified Korea would mean American troops on China’s border. Mr Trump’s
team should guarantee that this will not happen, and try to persuade
China that in the long run it is better off with a united, prosperous
neighbour than a poor, violent and unpredictable one.
苟竭制三肥胖,美国与那同盟国需要对该施加压力,同时注意勿可知吃无意识读吧开战的讯号。他们当加大经济制裁的力度,除朝鲜外,同时制约那些跟朝鲜产生市还是经济往来的中国公司。美国应当规范为日本与韩国供查处保障,加强导弹防御网针对有限皇家实行保障。这吗助长确保有限国不见面融洽做核武器。一旦开战,韩国会损失巨大,所以美国应该说服韩国以向阳美国咨询之前毫无擅自行动。中国啊颇麻烦三肥胖的政权,但与此同时担心而三胖倒台,一个合之韩国即便象征美国之军事会面世在华夏底分界上。川普的社应当保管及时不见面来,并尝试着说服中国起老来拘禁,有只团结,繁荣的邻居比一个返贫,暴力与不得预测的近邻强得几近

Everyone stay calm
All the options for dealing with the North are bad. Although America
should not recognise it as a legitimate nuclear power, it must base its
policy on the reality that it is already an illegitimate one. Mr Kim may
gamble that his nukes give him the freedom to behave more provocatively,
perhaps sponsoring terrorism in the South. He may also sell weapons to
other cruel regimes or terrorist groups. The world must do what it can
to thwart such plots, though some will doubtless succeed.
大家保障冷静
及朝鲜打交道的挑项无一个是好之,虽说美国未应有把他当法定的核力量对待,但政策要以基于此地下力量就有的功底之上。三胖胖有或会见赌核武器会受他还特别的半空中来施展挑衅行为,比如说在韩国资助恐怖分子。他为生或将武器卖于任何的恐怖组织或是政权。整个世界要一直全力阻止此类阴谋,尽管中多少必定会顺利

It is worth recalling that America has been here before. When Stalin and
Mao were building their first atom bombs, some in the West urged
pre-emptive strikes to stop them. Happily, cooler heads prevailed. Since
then, the logic of deterrence has ensured that these terrible weapons
have never been used. Some day, perhaps by coup or popular uprising,
North Koreans will be rid of their repulsive ruler, and the peninsula
will reunite as a democracy, like Germany. Until then, the world must
keep calm and contain Mr Kim.
值得回顾的凡美国一度如此干了千篇一律赖。当年斯大林和毛泽东造他们的首先粒原子弹的时节,西方一些人口早已怂恿要先行发制人,阻止他们。幸运的是,冷静的心力占了上风。自那后,威慑的逻辑保证了这些怕的兵从没吃以了。有同等龙,也许是政变,也许是人民起义。朝鲜以会见将她们这讨人厌的皇上赶下台,整个朝鲜半岛拿会再度联合改为一个民主国家,就比如德国相同。在那么之前,世界要维持冷静并竭制这个胖子