澳门新莆京23819com农学人20170805封面作品

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那期的封面题目是How to avoid nuclear war with North Korea
There are no good options to curb Kim Jong Un. But blundering into war
would be the worst
怎么着避免和朝鲜展开核战争
未曾什么好的法子可以范围金三胖,但即使没搞好开战了,那会是最坏的情状

IT IS odd that North Korea causes so much trouble. It is not exactly a
superpower. Its economy is only a fiftieth as big as that of its
democratic capitalist cousin, South Korea. Americans spend twice its
total GDP on their pets. Yet Kim Jong Un’s backward little dictatorship
has grabbed the attention of the whole world, and even of America’s
president, with its nuclear brinkmanship. On July 28th it tested an
intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit Los Angeles. Before
long, it will be able to mount nuclear warheads on such missiles, as it
already can on missiles aimed at South Korea and Japan. In charge of
this terrifying arsenal is a man who was brought up as a demigod and
cares nothing for human life—witness the innocents beaten to death with
hammers in his gigantic gulag. Last week his foreign ministry vowed that
if the regime’s “supreme dignity” is threatened, it will “pre-emptively
annihilate” the countries that threaten it, with all means “including
the nuclear ones”. Only a fool could fail to be alarmed.
北朝鲜能搞出如此多事真的挺神奇。它不是什么样一级大国。他的经济体积唯有他那搞民主资本主义的兄弟-高丽国的五相当之一。United States人一年花在宠物上的钱是它GDP的两倍。可是三胖那种开历史倒车的小独裁却引起了举世的关切,包涵美利坚联邦合众国总统,就因为她的核边缘政策。一月28日它测试发射了洲际弹道导弹,射程可以打到马德里。不久随后,
他将会有能力把核弹头挂在这种导弹上,对于日本和高丽国她已经有那种打击能力了.
控制那一个恐怖军工厂的是一个从小就被看做豪杰崇拜着长大的人,他对于人命漠不关怀,可以在他那高大的集中营里冷眼目睹无辜的人被铁锤活活敲死。就在下一周她的外交部门放出狠话,说假如政权的“最高尊严”受到威迫,他们将会对胁迫国家先声夺人,实施打击,并保留使用核武器在内一切手段的权利。唯有傻瓜才会不恐惧

What another Korean war might look like
Yet the most serious danger is not that one side will suddenly try to
devastate the other. It is that both sides will miscalculate, and that a
spiral of escalation will lead to a catastrophe that no one wants. Our
briefing this week lays out, step by step, one way that America and
North Korea might blunder into a nuclear war. It also lists some of the
likely consequences. These include: for North Korea, the destruction of
its regime and the death of hundreds of thousands of people. For South
Korea, the destruction of Seoul, a city of 10m within easy range of
1,000 of the North’s conventional artillery pieces. For America, the
possibility of a nuclear attack on one of its garrisons in East Asia, or
even on an American city. And don’t forget the danger of an armed
confrontation between America and China, the North’s neighbour and
grudging ally. It seems distasteful to mention the economic effects of
another Korean war, but they would of course be awful, too.
如果又一场朝鲜战事暴发,会是什么样
最凶险的不是一方突然想把另一方平素干趴下,而是两者误判互相,争辩螺旋般升级最终促成一场没人想要的天灾人祸。大家上周的报纸公布已经逐步指出,United States和朝鲜或然会犯下大错导致核战争的发生。简报也列出了有的大概的后果:对于朝鲜以来,政权倒台,千千万万的群众死亡。对于大韩民国的话,大田,那座具备一千万人口,并在朝鲜1000门常规火炮射程范围以内的城池被损毁。对于米国来说,一个东南亚地区的基地,甚至花旗国故里的一座城市大概会受到核攻击。同时别忘了美利坚合众国和华夏军旅争辩的危殆,终究中国到底朝鲜的街坊和半个盟友。大家不甘于探讨另一场朝鲜大战会对两全其美造成的影响,但并非说,也清楚很可怕

President Donald Trump has vowed to stop North Korea from perfecting a
nuclear warhead that could threaten the American mainland, tweeting that
“it won’t happen!” Some pundits suggest shooting down future test
missiles on the launchpad or, improbably, in the air. Others suggest
using force to overthrow the regime or pre-emptive strikes to destroy Mr
Kim’s nuclear arsenal before he has a chance to use it.
川普总统曾经颇负盛名表示,
要阻止朝鲜周详可以威吓美利坚联邦合众国的核打击能力,并在Twitter上说“绝不会让它发出”。一些专家提议,今后把发射台上,或许说有只怕的话,把已经飞上天的测试导弹给打下来。还有人提出使用军事颠覆政权,或是先声后实,在三胖可以运用以前把她的核武器库摧毁

澳门新莆京23819com,Yet it is just this sort of military action that risks a ruinous
escalation. Mr Kim’s bombs and missile-launchers are scattered and well
hidden. America’s armed forces, for all their might, cannot reliably
neutralise the North Korean nuclear threat before Mr Kim has a chance to
retaliate. The task would be difficult even if the Pentagon had good
intelligence about North Korea; it does not. The only justification for
a pre-emptive strike would be to prevent an imminent nuclear attack on
America or one of its allies.
多亏那种军事行动会拉动事态破坏性升级的危殆。三胖的炸弹和导弹发射器被分散配置,而且隐藏的很好。美利坚联邦合众国的武力没有办法适用保险,可以在三胖有机会打击报复之前化解朝鲜的核威慑。那项任务就是在五角大楼拥有很好的朝鲜音信时也很困难,更不要说还尚未。那种先发打击的绝无仅有理由就是拦住美利坚联邦合众国或其盟友遭逢核打击

Can Mr Kim be cajoled or bribed into giving up his nuclear ambitions? It
is worth trying, but has little chance of success. In 1994 President
Bill Clinton secured a deal whereby Kim Jong Il (the current despot’s
father) agreed to stop producing the raw material for nuclear bombs in
return for a huge injection of aid. Kim took the money and technical
help, but immediately started cheating. Another deal in 2005 failed, for
the same reason. The younger Kim, like his father, sees nuclear weapons
as the only way to guarantee the survival of his regime. It is hard to
imagine circumstances in which he would voluntarily give up what he
calls his “treasured sword of justice”.
三胖能被劝诱或许收买,主动放任他的核子野心么?值得一试,可是指望渺茫。1994年的时候Clinton和金二胖(三胖的爹)签了个商讨,朝鲜截至生产核武器原料,来换取多量的接济。二胖拿了本钱和技艺帮扶,却转头翻脸不认人。二零零五年另一个商事也破产了,也是同样的原因。年轻的三胖,跟她爹一样,都把核武器看做是维护政权的绝无仅有手段。很难想象一种恐怕,会让她自觉放任那把他所谓“宝贵的公允之剑”

If military action is reckless and diplomacy insufficient, the only
remaining option is to deter and contain Mr Kim. Mr Trump should make
clear—in a scripted speech, not a tweet or via his secretary of
state—that America is not about to start a war, nuclear or conventional.
However, he should reaffirm that a nuclear attack by North Korea on
America or one of its allies will immediately be matched. Mr Kim cares
about his own skin. He enjoys the life of a dissolute deity, living in a
palace and with the power to kill or bed any of his subjects. If he were
to unleash a nuclear weapon, he would lose his luxuries and his life. So
would his cronies. That means they can be deterred.
设若军事行动过于鲁莽而外交又过分疲劳,唯一剩下的选择唯有威慑和竭制三胖。川普总统应该以公开解说的花样,不是发推特(Twitter)可能让外交部代言昭告天下:美利坚联邦合众国不会积极性发起战争,无论是常规战依旧核战。但只要美利坚同盟国或其盟友蒙受到朝鲜的核打击,将会即刻还以颜色。三胖非凡关心本身,他很享受本身那既放荡,又跟神一般的生活。深居皇城之内,想杀何人就杀哪个人,想睡什么人就睡什么人。如若他放了核弹出去,他那条小命和奢华的活着就全都没了,而且会提到到他的相信,所以从这么些角度来说,他们是可以被威慑的。

To contain Mr Kim, America and its allies should apply pressure that
cannot be misconstrued as a declaration of war. They should ramp up
economic sanctions not only against the North Korean regime but also
against the Chinese companies that trade with it or handle its money.
America should formally extend its nuclear guarantee to South Korea and
Japan, and boost the missile defences that protect both countries. This
would help ensure that they do not build nuclear weapons of their own.
America should convince the South Koreans, who will suffer greatly if
war breaks out, that it will not act without consulting them. China is
fed up with the Kim regime, but fears that if it were to collapse, a
reunified Korea would mean American troops on China’s border. Mr Trump’s
team should guarantee that this will not happen, and try to persuade
China that in the long run it is better off with a united, prosperous
neighbour than a poor, violent and unpredictable one.
要竭制三胖,美利坚合作国和其合营国须求对其施加压力,同时注意不大概被误读为开战的讯号。他们应当加大经济制裁的力度,除朝鲜之外,同时制约那一个和朝鲜有交易或经济往来的中国公司。美国应该规范向扶桑和南朝鲜提供核保障,狠抓导弹防御系统对两国举办爱抚。那也拉动保险两国不会本身创设核武器。一旦开战,南朝鲜会损失巨大,所以美利哥应该说服南韩在向美利哥咨询此前不要专擅行动。中国也很烦三胖的政权,但还要担心即便三胖倒台,一个合并的南朝鲜就意味着美利坚联邦合众国的武装会油可是生在炎黄的边境线上。特朗普的团体应当确保那不会发出,并试着说服中国从遥远来看,有个团结,繁荣的邻里比一个贫寒,暴力和不得预测的近邻强得多

Everyone stay calm
All the options for dealing with the North are bad. Although America
should not recognise it as a legitimate nuclear power, it must base its
policy on the reality that it is already an illegitimate one. Mr Kim may
gamble that his nukes give him the freedom to behave more provocatively,
perhaps sponsoring terrorism in the South. He may also sell weapons to
other cruel regimes or terrorist groups. The world must do what it can
to thwart such plots, though some will doubtless succeed.
大家保证冷静
和朝鲜打交道的选项没一个是好的,虽说米利坚不应有把她当做法定的核力量对待,但政策必须以基于这么些地下力量早已存在的功底之上。三胖有可能会赌核武器会给他更大的空中来施展挑战行为,比如说在大韩民国资助恐怖分子。他也有大概把武器卖给别的的恐怖社团或是政权。全世界必须尽全力阻止此类阴谋,尽管其中多少必定会得手

It is worth recalling that America has been here before. When Stalin and
Mao were building their first atom bombs, some in the West urged
pre-emptive strikes to stop them. Happily, cooler heads prevailed. Since
then, the logic of deterrence has ensured that these terrible weapons
have never been used. Some day, perhaps by coup or popular uprising,
North Koreans will be rid of their repulsive ruler, and the peninsula
will reunite as a democracy, like Germany. Until then, the world must
keep calm and contain Mr Kim.
值得纪念的是美利坚合众国早就这么干过五次。当年斯大林和毛泽东造他们的第一颗原子弹的时候,西方一些人曾怂恿要先声后实,阻止他们。幸运的是,冷静的脑力占了上风。自那之后,威慑的逻辑保险了那些恐怖的刀兵从没被应用过。有一天,恐怕是政变,或者是人民起义。朝鲜将会把他们那个讨人厌的统治者赶下台,整个朝鲜半岛将会再也碰面成一个民主国家,如同德意志联邦共和国扳平。在那以前,世界必须保持冷静并竭制那些胖子