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那期的封面题目是How to avoid nuclear war with North Korea
There are no good options to curb Kim Jong Un. But blundering into war
would be the worst

IT IS odd that North Korea causes so much trouble. It is not exactly a
superpower. Its economy is only a fiftieth as big as that of its
democratic capitalist cousin, South Korea. Americans spend twice its
total GDP on their pets. Yet Kim Jong Un’s backward little dictatorship
has grabbed the attention of the whole world, and even of America’s
president, with its nuclear brinkmanship. On July 28th it tested an
intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit Los Angeles. Before
long, it will be able to mount nuclear warheads on such missiles, as it
already can on missiles aimed at South Korea and Japan. In charge of
this terrifying arsenal is a man who was brought up as a demigod and
cares nothing for human life—witness the innocents beaten to death with
hammers in his gigantic gulag. Last week his foreign ministry vowed that
if the regime’s “supreme dignity” is threatened, it will “pre-emptively
annihilate” the countries that threaten it, with all means “including
the nuclear ones”. Only a fool could fail to be alarmed.
北朝鲜能搞出如此多事真的挺神奇。它不是什么样一级大国。他的经济体积唯有他那搞民主资本主义的兄弟-高丽国的五相当之一。United States人一年花在宠物上的钱是它GDP的两倍。可是三胖那种开历史倒车的小独裁却引起了举世的关切,包涵美利坚联邦合众国总统,就因为她的核边缘政策。一月28日它测试发射了洲际弹道导弹,射程可以打到马德里。不久随后,

What another Korean war might look like
Yet the most serious danger is not that one side will suddenly try to
devastate the other. It is that both sides will miscalculate, and that a
spiral of escalation will lead to a catastrophe that no one wants. Our
briefing this week lays out, step by step, one way that America and
North Korea might blunder into a nuclear war. It also lists some of the
likely consequences. These include: for North Korea, the destruction of
its regime and the death of hundreds of thousands of people. For South
Korea, the destruction of Seoul, a city of 10m within easy range of
1,000 of the North’s conventional artillery pieces. For America, the
possibility of a nuclear attack on one of its garrisons in East Asia, or
even on an American city. And don’t forget the danger of an armed
confrontation between America and China, the North’s neighbour and
grudging ally. It seems distasteful to mention the economic effects of
another Korean war, but they would of course be awful, too.
最凶险的不是一方突然想把另一方平素干趴下,而是两者误判互相,争辩螺旋般升级最终促成一场没人想要的天灾人祸。大家上周的报纸公布已经逐步指出,United States和朝鲜或然会犯下大错导致核战争的发生。简报也列出了有的大概的后果:对于朝鲜以来,政权倒台,千千万万的群众死亡。对于大韩民国的话,大田,那座具备一千万人口,并在朝鲜1000门常规火炮射程范围以内的城池被损毁。对于米国来说,一个东南亚地区的基地,甚至花旗国故里的一座城市大概会受到核攻击。同时别忘了美利坚合众国和华夏军旅争辩的危殆,终究中国到底朝鲜的街坊和半个盟友。大家不甘于探讨另一场朝鲜大战会对两全其美造成的影响,但并非说,也清楚很可怕

President Donald Trump has vowed to stop North Korea from perfecting a
nuclear warhead that could threaten the American mainland, tweeting that
“it won’t happen!” Some pundits suggest shooting down future test
missiles on the launchpad or, improbably, in the air. Others suggest
using force to overthrow the regime or pre-emptive strikes to destroy Mr
Kim’s nuclear arsenal before he has a chance to use it.

澳门新莆京23819com,Yet it is just this sort of military action that risks a ruinous
escalation. Mr Kim’s bombs and missile-launchers are scattered and well
hidden. America’s armed forces, for all their might, cannot reliably
neutralise the North Korean nuclear threat before Mr Kim has a chance to
retaliate. The task would be difficult even if the Pentagon had good
intelligence about North Korea; it does not. The only justification for
a pre-emptive strike would be to prevent an imminent nuclear attack on
America or one of its allies.

Can Mr Kim be cajoled or bribed into giving up his nuclear ambitions? It
is worth trying, but has little chance of success. In 1994 President
Bill Clinton secured a deal whereby Kim Jong Il (the current despot’s
father) agreed to stop producing the raw material for nuclear bombs in
return for a huge injection of aid. Kim took the money and technical
help, but immediately started cheating. Another deal in 2005 failed, for
the same reason. The younger Kim, like his father, sees nuclear weapons
as the only way to guarantee the survival of his regime. It is hard to
imagine circumstances in which he would voluntarily give up what he
calls his “treasured sword of justice”.

If military action is reckless and diplomacy insufficient, the only
remaining option is to deter and contain Mr Kim. Mr Trump should make
clear—in a scripted speech, not a tweet or via his secretary of
state—that America is not about to start a war, nuclear or conventional.
However, he should reaffirm that a nuclear attack by North Korea on
America or one of its allies will immediately be matched. Mr Kim cares
about his own skin. He enjoys the life of a dissolute deity, living in a
palace and with the power to kill or bed any of his subjects. If he were
to unleash a nuclear weapon, he would lose his luxuries and his life. So
would his cronies. That means they can be deterred.

To contain Mr Kim, America and its allies should apply pressure that
cannot be misconstrued as a declaration of war. They should ramp up
economic sanctions not only against the North Korean regime but also
against the Chinese companies that trade with it or handle its money.
America should formally extend its nuclear guarantee to South Korea and
Japan, and boost the missile defences that protect both countries. This
would help ensure that they do not build nuclear weapons of their own.
America should convince the South Koreans, who will suffer greatly if
war breaks out, that it will not act without consulting them. China is
fed up with the Kim regime, but fears that if it were to collapse, a
reunified Korea would mean American troops on China’s border. Mr Trump’s
team should guarantee that this will not happen, and try to persuade
China that in the long run it is better off with a united, prosperous
neighbour than a poor, violent and unpredictable one.

Everyone stay calm
All the options for dealing with the North are bad. Although America
should not recognise it as a legitimate nuclear power, it must base its
policy on the reality that it is already an illegitimate one. Mr Kim may
gamble that his nukes give him the freedom to behave more provocatively,
perhaps sponsoring terrorism in the South. He may also sell weapons to
other cruel regimes or terrorist groups. The world must do what it can
to thwart such plots, though some will doubtless succeed.

It is worth recalling that America has been here before. When Stalin and
Mao were building their first atom bombs, some in the West urged
pre-emptive strikes to stop them. Happily, cooler heads prevailed. Since
then, the logic of deterrence has ensured that these terrible weapons
have never been used. Some day, perhaps by coup or popular uprising,
North Koreans will be rid of their repulsive ruler, and the peninsula
will reunite as a democracy, like Germany. Until then, the world must
keep calm and contain Mr Kim.